Crockett vs. Talarico: Texas Democrats Face Defining Choice in High-Stakes Senate Primary | VIDEO

*The clock is ticking for Texas Democrats. Early voting ended on February 27, and the March 3 primary election is just days away. At the center of it all is a fiercely contested battle for the U.S. Senate nomination between two of the party’s brightest rising stars: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.

The race represents a fundamental debate over the future of the Democratic Party in Texas—a state Democrats haven’t won in a Senate race since 1988. On one side is Crockett’s unapologetic, progressive firepower. On the other is Talarico’s more moderate, cross-partisan appeal.

With a third candidate, Ahmad Hassan, polling in single digits, the primary has essentially become a two-person race. And depending on how the final votes break, it may not end on March 3.

The Rules of the Game: Majority or Runoff

Texas election law requires a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote to win a primary outright. If no one crosses that threshold, the top two finishers head to a runoff on May 26.

Given the tight margins and high turnout expectations, many operatives believe a runoff is not just possible—it’s probable.

The Polling Picture: A Race in Flux

Polling in the final stretch has been contradictory, reflecting a volatile electorate and a race that has shifted significantly in recent weeks.

The most recent comprehensive survey, conducted by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project from Feb. 2-16, gave Crockett a commanding 56% to 44% lead among likely Democratic primary voters. The poll showed Crockett dominating with Black voters (87%) and holding her own in urban strongholds like Dallas and Houston.

But earlier surveys told a different story. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll in January showed Talarico leading 47% to 38%, with the Austin lawmaker holding advantages among Hispanic and white voters.

The most recent polling averages tell an even tighter story. The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average shows the race virtually tied, with Talarico at 44.4% and Crockett at 44.1%. However, some of those polls have been criticized for being campaign-affiliated or lacking transparency.

A University of Houston Hobby School poll released last week found Crockett at 47% and Talarico at 39%, reinforcing her edge but leaving her just shy of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

The bottom line? Crockett appears to have momentum, but Talarico is closing fast—and undecided voters (hovering around 15% in some polls) could swing the outcome.

Texas Democratic Primary Polling: Crockett vs. Talarico

The Colbert Effect: Talarico’s Late Surge

If there’s a single moment that changed the trajectory of this race, it happened on Feb. 16.

Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, a massive platform for any candidate. But CBS lawyers pulled the interview at the last minute, citing unspecified concerns.

The move backfired spectacularly.

The interview was released on YouTube, where it went viral. In the 24 hours following the controversy, Talarico’s campaign reported raising $2.5 million. The surge injected new energy into his campaign and introduced him to national donors at a critical moment.

“Crockett has built her profile through sharp exchanges and viral moments in Congress,” one Democratic strategist noted. “But Talarico just had his own viral moment—and it came with a $2.5 million price tag.”

Money Race: Talarico Outraises, Crockett Out-transfers

The fundraising numbers tell a story of two very different campaign strategies.

Talarico has reported raising more than $21 million through last week, a staggering sum fueled by small-dollar donors and the Colbert bounce. He entered the race in September, giving him a three-month head start.

Crockett has raised nearly $8.6 million, but the majority of that was transferred from her House campaign account after she entered the race in December. Her strength lies in a deep bench of national progressive donors and groups like EMILY’s List, which endorsed her early .

Endorsements: Two Paths to Victory

The endorsement war reflects the candidates’ contrasting coalitions.

Crockett has locked down institutional support from the Congressional Black Caucus, EMILY’s List, and labor unions including SEIU Texas. Rep. Maxine Waters has campaigned for her, and Cardi B recently urged her followers to support Crockett.

Talarico boasts the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle, the state’s largest newspaper, whose editorial board praised him as “the only candidate in this race campaigning like he understands that winning requires a new playbook.”  He’s also backed by the Texas AFL-CIO and several state legislators.

Demographic Divide: Who’s Voting for Whom?

The primary electorate in Texas is diverse—and so are the coalitions supporting these candidates.

Crockett’s base is anchored by Black voters (she pulls 87% in the UT poll), seniors, and non-college-educated Democrats. Her district in Dallas is a reliably Democratic stronghold, and she’s counting on high turnout in urban centers like Dallas and Houston.

Talarico’s strength lies with white and Hispanic Democrats, as well as men. He’s also made overt appeals to disaffected Republicans, discussing his Christian faith and presenting a more conciliatory message.

Republican Interference: A Double-Edged Sword?

One complicating factor: Republicans have reportedly boosted Crockett’s profile, viewing her as an easier general election opponent given Texas’ conservative lean. The strategy is not new—both parties have meddled in opposing primaries for decades—but it carries risks.

“If Republicans are spending money to help Crockett, Democratic voters might resent the interference and rally to Talarico,” said one Texas-based consultant. “Or it could simply reinforce her support. We won’t know until the votes are counted.”

What Happens Next?

With early voting ending today, campaigns are laser-focused on get-out-the-vote operations. High turnout in urban areas favors Crockett. High turnout in the suburbs and the Austin area favors Talarico.

Based on the latest polling, here’s how the scenarios break down:

• Crockett wins outright (55-60% chance): If her 56% showing in the UT poll holds and urban turnout is robust, she could clear 50% and avoid a runoff.

• Runoff (30-35% chance): If Talarico’s late surge eats into her margin and undecideds break late, neither candidate reaches the majority threshold, forcing a two-month runoff campaign.

• Talarico upset (10-15% chance): If the Colbert momentum translates into a massive turnout among his coalition, he could pull off a narrow victory—but polling suggests this is the longest shot.

Okurrr??Y’all heard my good sis!!! She’s on a SOLD OUT tour and still took a minute to tap in. We’ve got 2 days of Early Voting left. Let’s gooooo!!! #JasmineForUS #TexasTough pic.twitter.com/3whfAEooa5

— Jasmine Crockett (@JasmineForUS) February 26, 2026

The Bigger Picture

Crockett’s potential victory would mark a historic moment: a Black woman from Dallas carrying the Democratic banner in a statewide Texas race. Her rise builds on the national profile she’s cultivated through viral congressional moments and her unapologetic style. Who knows. Hopefully, for her, Cardi B’s endorsement will help folks turnout and vote for her.

But regardless of who wins on March 3, the race has already shattered records. With more than $110 million spent on advertising across both parties, this is the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history.

And for Texas Democrats, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner will face either incumbent Sen. John Cornyn or his Republican challenger Ken Paxton in November. Given Texas’ conservative tilt, the Democratic nominee will need every advantage they can get.

The first step is surviving the primary.

Election results will begin flowing after polls close at 7 p.m. CT on March 3. If no candidate exceeds 50%, the runoff will be held May 26.

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