A significant power shift looms in the smartphone industry as Apple prepares to claim the top spot in worldwide device shipments next year. Counterpoint Research forecasts the tech giant will outpace Samsung for the first time since 2011, capturing 19.4% of the global market.
As CNBC reports, the research firm anticipates Apple will move approximately 243 million iPhones throughout 2025, while Samsung’s shipments are expected to reach 235 million units. This turnaround arrives as the iPhone 17 series gains strong traction following its September debut.
Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang explained the timing behind this shift. “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Wang stated.
Apple’s dominance isn’t expected to be short-lived, with projections showing continued leadership through 2029. The company has benefited from selling 358 million pre-owned iPhones between 2023 and mid-2025, while trade negotiations have lessened tariff concerns and improved economic sentiment has boosted buyer confidence.
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Additional advantages working in Apple’s favor include a depreciated U.S. dollar and stability across developing regions. The company also plans to diversify its offerings with the budget-friendly iPhone 17e and its first foldable device, anticipated for next year, alongside Siri enhancements and a comprehensive iPhone overhaul scheduled for 2027.
According to Counterpoint, strategic expansion across various pricing categories positions Apple to capitalize on growing consumer ambition. “By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing ‘e’ series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and to strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market,” the firm noted.
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