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*”Digger” opens in theaters Friday, Oct. 2, and early projections point to a rough start for Tom Cruise.
According to MovieWeb, the film could earn only $8 million to $12 million domestically. Earlier tracking reportedly estimated about $30 million for the debut. That would mark a steep drop. Actual results could still shift the outlook, so Friday’s opening and the weekend that follows will provide the first real evidence.
The Alejandro G. Iñárritu film reportedly carries a $135 million production budget. A soft domestic opening would leave it relying on international audiences and staying power in the following weeks. Those results will matter more than tracking.
Cruise plays Digger Rockwell, a powerful businessman whose actions trigger a catastrophe threatening humanity. Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg and Jesse Plemons co-star. The ensemble gives the film notable star power beyond its lead.
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Iñárritu expected divided reactions. “I think this film will be polarizing,” he told Variety. “Some people will hate it, and some people will love it.”
Reviews have divided critics, creating another obstacle. Warner Bros. is selling an expensive original movie without an established franchise behind it. The studio has even used negative reviews in its marketing. Promotional material encourages moviegoers to “decide for yourself,” according to PEOPLE.
Cruise’s drawing power faces an unusually difficult test, and the reported budget raises the stakes. The film also departs from the franchise work that defined much of Cruise’s recent career. He has spent much of the past decade leading “Mission: Impossible” films and returning to “Top Gun.” That makes “Digger” a rare test of his box office appeal in an original, filmmaker-driven project. Its performance could show whether audiences will follow him beyond familiar action franchises.
Projections are not receipts, however. The film must actually reach theaters before anyone can call it one of the year’s biggest box office failures.
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