*Over the next 25 years, millions of Americans living in disadvantaged (Black and Brown) communities will confront significant climate-related dangers, according to a new nationwide report. The ICF Climate Center‘s recently published report highlights the increased exposure to life-threatening extreme heat and the greater hardships due to reduced energy reliability that these communities will face.
The report examines global warming projections in Justice40 communities—areas identified by the federal government as marginalized, underserved, and overburdened by pollution. The Justice40 Initiative, part of President Biden’s strategy to tackle the climate crisis, aims to direct 40% of the benefits from specific federal climate, energy, and housing investments into these vulnerable areas.
Under a moderate-emissions scenario—where fossil fuel consumption peaks in the coming decades and then declines—at least 25 million people in disadvantaged communities will be exposed to health-threatening extreme heat annually by 2050. If greenhouse gas emissions remain unchanged, this number could rise to 53 million. Extreme heat is defined as experiencing at least 48 health-threatening heat days per year.
“We were a bit surprised at those numbers—they’re large and meaningful,” said Mason Fried, one of the report’s authors and the director of climate science at ICF, a global consulting firm, in an interview with the LA Times. “The potential exposure of extreme heat does seem to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged communities.”
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Currently, about 8 million people in Justice40 communities are exposed to heat waves that can disrupt energy systems, potentially causing power outages. By 2050, this figure could rise to 34 million under a moderate-emissions scenario and 43 million under a high-emissions scenario.
While disadvantaged communities will bear the brunt of these climate impacts, extreme heat will affect many others. The report indicates that under the most likely moderate-emissions scenario, 41 million Americans outside of Justice40 communities will also face 48 or more health-threatening heat days annually by 2050, and 44 million will experience energy-impacting heat.
However, the effects of extreme heat will not be equally distributed. Many marginalized communities already face disadvantages due to factors such as population age and preexisting health conditions like diabetes and heart disease, which can be exacerbated by heat. Additionally, inefficient infrastructure, lack of tree canopy, and limited access to air conditioning worsen their situation.
“Everybody’s going to be exposed to more heat, so is the question really, how much more exposed? Or is the question, how many people are living with inadequate infrastructure to keep them safe when it is hot?” remarked V. Kelly Turner, an associate director of urban planning at UCLA, who was not involved in the report. Turner, who also co-directs the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, emphasized the disparities in heat exposure due to environmental factors like vegetation and asphalt.
In cities like Los Angeles, temperature variations between neighboring areas can be significant, influenced by differences in vegetation and the built environment.
Despite these challenges, many Angelenos are more accustomed to higher temperatures than residents in cooler regions, Turner noted.
“It’s about what you’re used to versus what you’re exposed to,” she explained.
The report’s findings underline an urgent need for targeted investments and strategies to mitigate these climate risks, especially in Justice40 communities. With the Justice40 Initiative aiming to channel 40% of federal climate, energy, and housing investments into these marginalized areas, there’s a drive to ensure that the most vulnerable populations receive the support they need to weather the impending challenges.
For a deeper dive into the report and its implications, you can read more (HERE) at the LA Times.
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