*A newly published study is adding fresh weight to the argument that marijuana legalization may actually help reduce crime rather than fuel it.
According to Marijuana Moment, researchers from Jack Welch College of Business and Technology, Barnard College, National Chengchi University, and Longwood University set out to measure how varying approaches to cannabis reform shape criminal activity nationwide.
Their findings, published in the journal “Economic Modelling,” drew a clear distinction between the two forms of legalization. Medical cannabis legalization was associated with lower property crime rates, while adult-use recreational legalization was tied to declining violent crime.
The researchers determined that these shifts take time to materialize, with the full weight of the impact becoming apparent only after multiple years have passed since a law was enacted.
“What emerges from our multi-step analysis is a birds-eye view of legalization: medical and recreational legalization have different impacts and operate through diverse channels, with significant lag effects,” the researchers said.
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“The overarching result from our main synthetic difference in differences model is that medical legalization reduces property crime, while recreational legalization reduces violent crime,” they added.
“Such effects support the Becker hypothesis that legalization drives out crime. Building up to the synthetic difference in difference model, we discovered that there may also be important lag effects. The diverse and potentially time-varying impacts of medical and recreational legalization raise a cautionary note to policymakers: those considering legalization should wait a few years before pronouncing on the cost–benefit impact, focus on the specific type of legalization, and study closely the outcomes from similar states.”
The authors advise lawmakers against rushing to evaluate legalization efforts too soon, emphasizing the importance of identifying which type of reform is being assessed and drawing comparisons from states with relevant similarities before reaching any firm conclusions.
The new findings build on a widening body of evidence connecting cannabis reform to public safety improvements. A study released last year determined that decriminalizing marijuana in Atlanta contributed to a decline in violent crime, as officers were freed up to concentrate resources elsewhere.
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