*Forget the steamrolls. Forget the sweeps. The 98th Academy Awards, airing this Sunday, March 15, 2026, on ABC and streaming live on Hulu, is shaping up to be the most chaotic and unpredictable ceremony in modern memory.
Host Conan O’Brien returns for his second year to navigate a race that has split pundits, split precursors, and split the internet. At the heart of the chaos is an epic head-to-head between two titans: Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic One Battle After Another (starring Leonardo DiCaprio) and Ryan Coogler’s horror-tinged blockbuster Sinners (starring Michael B. Jordan). Both films enter the Dolby Theatre with a record number of nominations, and they are dueling in 11 categories, creating a nail-biter that has left experts at Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and IndieWire refreshing their odds by the hour.
Here are the final predictions for the major categories, based on the Gold Derby consensus, late-breaking momentum, and the “vibe vs. stats” debate that has defined this awards season.
Best Picture: The Ultimate Toss-Up
Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Threat: Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
This is the tightest Best Picture race in decades. Statistically, One Battle After Another has the edge, having won the Directors Guild Award (DGA), the Producers Guild Award (PGA), the Golden Globe, and the Critics’ Choice Award. That is a precursor package that usually guarantees a win.
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However, Sinners has the “vibes.” It won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble—a massive indicator of industry love—and has the cultural momentum of a late-breaking phenomenon. If the preferential ballot breaks in its favor, it could end a 34-year drought for the horror genre at the Oscars (the last being The Silence of the Lambs). Don’t be shocked if Ryan Coogler makes history here.
Best Director: The Overdue Narrative
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Despite the chaos below the line, this category feels locked. Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated 14 times without a single win. His DGA victory, combined with the sheer scale and ambition of One Battle After Another, makes this his moment. Ryan Coogler would be a historic winner (the first Black director to win the category), but the stats favor PTA heavily—Gold Derby currently has him at ~95%.
Best Actor: The Late Surge
Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
This race flipped. Early in the season, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner, but a combination of campaign backlash and fading buzz opened the door. Michael B. Jordan, delivering a transformative dual performance in Sinners, capitalized on the momentum shift perfectly. His SAG Award win was the final piece of the puzzle, proving he has the industry support to take down Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and the veteran power of Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
Best Actress: The Lock of the Night
Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
If there is one guarantee on Sunday, it is Jessie Buckley. She has swept every major precursor—the Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG—for her emotionally devastating performance as Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife. Her Gold Derby odds sit at a staggering ~97%. Write her name in pen.
Best Supporting Actor: The Veteran’s Due
Predicted Winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Sean Penn’s turn as the villainous Col Lockjaw has been a masterclass in gravitas. Having won both the BAFTA and the SAG Award, he enters as the favorite, despite stiff competition from Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners).
Best Supporting Actress: The Final Puzzle Piece
Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
This category has been a three-way battle all season. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) won the Globe; Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) won the BAFTA. But Amy Madigan’s victory at the SAG Awards gives her the crucial late momentum needed to clinch the Oscar.
The Screenplay Categories
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Best Original Screenplay: Sinners
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Ryan Coogler’s bold blending of horror and social commentary is expected to earn him his first Oscar.
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Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
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Paul Thomas Anderson’s loose adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland has been a critics’ darling all year.
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Where to Watch
The 98th Academy Awards air live this Sunday, March 15, at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on ABC and will be streaming simultaneously on Hulu. The red-carpet pre-show kicks off early in the afternoon.
Will One Battle After Another hold the line? Will Sinners pull off the historic upset? Grab your popcorn—this is going to be a wild ride.
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