*He may be celebrating his win over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election with 312 electoral votes, but Donald Trump cannot boast of capturing the popular vote anymore.
As California, Oregon, Washington, and other Western states move closer to completing their counts, the former reality TV fixture’s percentage of the popular vote fell below 50 percent, with his margin of victory shaping to be much smaller than initially anticipated, according to The Nation.
Although Trump initially had the advantage with the popular vote, that edge has declined steadily since election night.
As of Nov. 18, Trump was at 49.94 percent of the popular vote, while Harris was slightly behind at 48.26, according to the authoritative Cook Political Report’s tracking of results from official sources in states across the country. As votes are finalized from heavily Democratic states, expectations are pointing to the MAGA leader’s grip on the popular vote slipping.
Don’t totally count Trump out, though. He is still ahead of Harris in the popular vote. while maintaining a lead in the Electoral College based on a pattern of wins in battleground states, according to The Nation.
Although his popular vote totals are lessening, the reality is the decline won’t cost him Trump the presidency. Still, he won’t be able to use that as fuel for winning the election overall. As it stands now, Harris is behind Trump by just 1.68 percent of the vote.
“Let’s put this in perspective: Trump is winning a lower percent of the popular vote this year than Biden did in 2020 (51.3), Obama in 2012 (51.1), Obama in 2008 (52.9), George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7), George H.W. Bush in 1988 (53.2), Ronald Reagan in 1984 (58.8), Reagan in 1980 (50.7), or Jimmy Carter in 1976 (50.1).
And, of course, Trump numbers are way below those of the presidents who won what could reasonably be described as “unprecedented and powerful” mandates, such as Richard Nixon’s 60.7 percent in 1972, Lyndon Johnson’s 61.1 percent in 1964, or Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 60.8 percent. As Trump’s percentage continues to slide, he’ll fall below the thresholds achieved by most presidents in the past century,” The Nation detailed while hitting the point home with historical popular vote stats for both candidates.
“Harris, on the other hand, is looking like a much stronger finisher than she did on election night. The Democrat now has a higher percentage of the popular vote than Presidents Trump in 2016 (46.1), Bush in 2000 (47.9), Clinton in 1992 (43), or Nixon in 1968 (43.4). She has also performed significantly better than recent major-party nominees such as Trump in 2020 (46.8), Trump in 2016 (48.2), Mitt Romney in 2012 (47.2), John McCain in 2008 (45.7), George W. Bush in 2000 (47.9), Bob Dole in 1996 (40.7), George H.W. Bush in 1992 (37.4), Michael Dukakis in 1988 (45.6), Walter Mondale (40.6), Carter in 1980 (41), or Gerald Ford in 1976 (48).”
Whether he accepts the popular vote decline or not, the fact is Trump will spin the final results of the election to his advantage. After all, this is the same guy who claimed victory, when he lost the 2016 popular vote by almost 3 million ballots and still held on to false claims of victory four years later when he refused to accept defeat by more than 7 million votes.
Trump’s popular vote decline wasn’t the only thing The Nation touched on. The Democratic party was not above the site’s assessment as it pointed out that despite reaping the benefits of the numbers, internal issues are very much present.
“That does not mean, however, that a clearer picture of the results should dissuade the Democrats from looking for ways to reform their party,” the site mentioned.” Even if the margins are narrower than initially imagined, it is still the case that the party failed to beat Trump and a Republican Party that embraces the destructive politics not just of its presidential candidate but of the billionaire class. This is a time for serious reflection on mistakes that were made, and on challenges going forward, as part of a needed examination of how to build a multiracial, multiethnic working-class coalition that can win decisively, and not just at the presidential level but also in the struggle to regain control of the House and Senate in 2026.”
For more of the breakdown of Trump’s less than 50 percent popular vote total click here.
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