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*Ava DuVernay’s $100 million adaptation of Madeleine L’Engle’s classic novel “A Wrinkle In Time” and “Black Panther” are both expected to bag $35 million at the box office this upcoming weekend.
According to TheWrap, when tracking for “A Wrinkle in Time” first came out three weeks ago, opening weekend estimates were set at approximately $35 million, according to California Film Commission reports. Many concluded that the film would knock “Black Panther” out of the top spot, but now industry analysts believe “that expectation may have been premature.”
per The Wrap:
Despite Disney’s usually intense marketing campaign which included TV and digital spots throughout NBC’s Winter Olympics coverage, tracking has remained stuck in the mid-30 range. It’s not the ideal start for a film directed by an Oscar-nominated filmmaker and starring Oprah Winfrey.
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Reactions from advanced screenings of the fantasy feature have been warm, and Disney set the review embargo for “Wrinkle in Time” to drop on Wednesday morning (March 7), as opposed to three days before the release for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” and 10 days for “Black Panther.”
Mashable.com points out that “Movies whose reviews publish well in advance have significantly higher Rotten Tomatoes scores than those posted on shorter windows. It’s always been good Hollywood horse sense that a late-lifting embargo is the sign of a stinker.”
“This movie’s really going to need good word-of-mouth from the opening weekend crowd for it to do well,” said Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. “It’s got Oprah in it, but the trailers have been very confusing and the film is coming out at a time when audiences just haven’t shown a lot of interest in movies based on YA novels.”
Meanwhile, “Black Panther” continues to crush the box office on its way to making just over $500 million from domestic receipts alone. Most Marvel films drop 55-60 percent after opening weekend, but “Black Panther” “has yet to suffer a drop of more than 45 percent in a weekend,” according to the report.
“Black Panther‘s” fourth weekend total is expected to hit the same range as “Wrinkle in Time‘s” opening: $35-40 million. If the Black superhero ends up topping Ava’s colorful fantasy film to take the No. 1 spot again, “it will become the first movie since “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” to finish at No. 1 for four straight weekends.”
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